Syrian refugee crisis. This is a solution proposal.

Well, I will try to be really brief and clear.

I will start pointing out four facts.

These people try to escape war and ISIS. So they choose routes towards the West, with the majority of them aiming to reach some particular countries of the European Union. This includes a long, hard road, with ruthless traffickers, dangerous weather conditions, etc. So this is Fact One: The long, dangerous road to the West.

Of course, widely known as it is, terrorists "blend" into the groups of Syrian migrants, falsely stating themselves as war refugees during the substandard checks taking place after they have entered European Union, posing an already “certified” danger to the European countries. This is Fact Two: The terrorists infiltrating easily in target countries through the groups of real refugees.

The groups of “real” refugees, and their rights for political asylum, are being abused by other ethnicities too, that are not supposed to enter European Union and other countries without particular papers, certain checks and officials approval, illegal immigrants from the wider Middle East that also falsely state themselves as Syrians. This is Fact Three: Illegal immigrants abusing the international institution of political asylum for war refugees.

Fact Four does not need any further details: The proportional/equal distribution of the refugees seeking asylum in European/Western countries.

The solution, according to my naive way of thinking is this:

Organized UN/EU checkpoint facilities (ASCC-Asylum Seekers Confirmation Centres) close to the already known routes of the refugees, inside Turkish territory, right next to the borders with Syria (the vast majority of the Syrians trying to get to the West through Turkey). These -and only these-will be official paper-issuing spots for Syrians seeking asylum in a European/Western country, which will be clear to everyone, especially the asylum seekers.

The solution regarding the aforementioned Facts:

Fact One: The trafficking and weather conditions dangers elimination. No Syrians will choose this way into the EU because they will not be validated to enter.

Fact Two: The detailed checks at the official and staffed with specialized and equipped personnel facilities will be more in-depth and effective.

Fact Three: Same as Fact Two.

Fact Four: Easier for the checkpoint personnel to manage the final destinationof each family in consultation with the statistics given by the headquarters.

It is important to be clear that all confirmed asylum seekers will be taken care and given dignified alternatives and support in order to get to the desired and suggested destination.

Inactivity

The Security Affairs blog has been inactive for some time, due to professional obligations of the admin. However, it will be updated soon, keeping a slower pace for now. Thank you all!

Russian military presence in Sevastopol, Crimea.

   The following is part of the 2011 research "Black Sea Military Dynamics - The Reemergence Of Russia, Military Presence In Black Sea States" by Giorgos Dimitriadis, and gives some details regarding the Russian forces deployed at Sevastopol, Crimea, in Ukraine. Crimea is currently one of the main theaters of political unrest that takes place in Ukraine.

   "The main base of Russian Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol, that is subject to the 1997 agreement between Moscow and Kiev governments, has been many times issue of discussion and argumentation, mainly for the two implicated states. As mentioned before, Russians leased the port until 2017, paying $100 million dollars to Ukraine every year. Through the last years, both sides were calling upon this agreement during the aforementioned discussions, although they were tending to attach different meanings to its clauses, meanings that were respectively beneficial to each one of them. Until recently, Ukrainian deputies were showing the way out to the Russian Fleet, proposing to start the joint planning of the evacuation of the leased Ukrainian bases and the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to the Russian coasts. However, the Russian side continuously insisted on avoiding even to accept the possibility of the agreement's termination in 2017 and stayed clear from any official discussions about this option. 

   On 21st of April 2010, the ambiguous scenarios about this issue came to an end. Presidents Viktor Yanukovich of Ukraine and Dmitri Medvedev of Russia signed a new agreement extending the leasing of the Ukrainian bases for the Russian Fleet until 2042, with a further extension option to 2047. The deal was that in return for accepting this new agreement, Ukraine will have a discount of thirty percent (30%) on the price of the Russian natural gas imported. More detailed, the new agreement will grant Ukraine a discount of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas in the case the benchmark rate is above $330 or a discount of 30% if the rate is lower than that. Until the new agreement, Ukraine was paying $305 per 1,000 cubic meters.

 Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government met a lot of critics for this agreement. Viktor Yanukovich who has often -before and after the agreement- been characterized as a Kremlin stooge by his opponents, noted his strong belief that he did the best for his country and said that the Russian Fleet will be a security guarantee for Ukraine and the Black Sea. On the other hand, international analysts noted that with this move, Ukraine buried every chance for entering NATO for the next four decades and many Ukrainian opposition politicians claimed that this decision violates the country's constitution.

   In October 2011, through the Defense Minister Mykhaylo Yezhel, Ukrainian government announced the positive answer to the Russian question about the Black Sea Fleet rennovation raised in 2010. Minister Yezhel said that “the average service life of a warship is 25-30 years. It is only natural that the (current) ships will be replaced, and that is the subject of negotiations.” This was underlined by the minister because the primary lease agreement was not allowing the increase of the ships number, however, under the extension of the lease until 2042, some of the old, outdated ships must be replaced. The BSF is expected to receive 15 new frigates and diesel electric submarines by 2020."

   You can find the full chapter regarding the Russian Base in Sevastopol, Ukraine, as well as the full research about the Russian Forces in the Black Sea region here.

Is the Ukrainian unity and stability certain?

   Of course, the desired answer is "Yes". However, amidst the reports of the rapid changes in the political scene and the unrest of the society in Ukraine, the fear of a partition appears. Although Yanukovych was ousted by the PMs and Tymoshenko was, at last, set free, it is a fact that the (former) Ukrainian President has a lot of supporters in the eastern part of the country.

-courtesy of The Washington Post online-

   Without comparing anything else but the opposition and the support feelings expressed towards political leaders, the recent history of clashes between opponents and supporters of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt should be taken under consideration during the political process of the following period, while in the situation of Ukraine, even fears of a country division are already expressed.

   The theory of expressing the possibility of a division, although not desirable, is not extreme. A mix of factors as the aforementioned, the political/social instability, the economic situation and the external influences could become the keystone for a possible East-West partition of Ukraine. This is why in order to avoid this scenario, the new leadership must use a mild and diplomatic policy, side by side with the European Union.

Clashes in Kiev, a drawback for europhile Ukrainians.

   Escalation of the riots in Kiev, Ukraine, continues, increasing the death toll to extremely high numbers. The "Euromaidan" movement, is being transformed into violent and bloody clashes, raising fears about the possibility of extended nationwide internal conflicts or even a civil war.

Clashes in Kiyv, Ukraine. (courtesy of Reuters/Vasily Fedosenko)

   The beginning of all this was the reaction (right, according to many) of the Europhile Ukrainian citizens to the decision of Yanukovich to stop any negotiation related to the desired agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. However it is important for every Ukrainian, citizen or opposition party leader, who supports a cooperation and a possible future membership of the country with the EU, to realize that their dreams are in a jeopardy, this time not because of their President, but because of crossing the lines regarding their reactions.

   The hardcore clashes that can easy turn into a civil war (especially when there are reports of rioters/civilians who obtained handguns and light weapons) can only take a country away from its goal to become part of the Union. Every day of deep instability and internal conflicts is a step backwards for the possibility of Ukraine to achieve any kind of agreement with Europe.

New Energy Roads: Trans Adriatic Pipeline Pt.3

(image copyrights: www.jsg.utexas.edu)

During the past months, Security Affairs have indicated the importance of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline as the route of transport of the Azeri Shah Deniz II gas to Europe.

Although the competition was hard, in 28th of June the Shah Deniz Consortium confirmed the choice of TAP, introducing Greece, Italy and Albania to the new energy era of Europe. With this agreement and after the initiation of transport, the European countries will no more depend only on Russia and Algeria for their natural gas needs, considering Azerbaijan as their new powerful energy partner.

The Consortium also pointed out that this particular choice was made because of the project's advanced economic and technical characteristics. Thanks to these characteristics, Trans Adriatic Pipeline prevailed over NABUCCO West, the until recently predominant pipeline whose route was including Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Austria.

For the three countries that will host TAP, the implementation of the project will offer an economic and geopolitical boost, including new job positions, raise of investments and a higher energy profile towards the European Union. Italy is going to gain a wider energy independence from Algeria and its natural gas supplies. Regarding Greece, it is an important move against the economic crisis and the hyperbolic voices about "Grexit", prompting international investors to approach the market in wider scale. And of course, for Albania, the pipeline agreement is synchronized with a major political change, the victory of the Alliance for a European Albania and its leader Edi Rama; the  important energy project and the defeat of Sali Berisha which was widely considered as a sign of growing democratic maturity of Albania, is a promising combination for its future.

Trans Adriatic Pipeline will be approximately 870 km long, connecting with Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) near Greek-Turkish borders. It is designed to expand the capacity from 10 to 20 bcm per year and will open up the so-called Southern Gas Corridor, strengthening Europe's energy security by providing a new natural gas source.

Erdogan's intransigence, a step back for Turkey.

Protesters holding banners reading on "Tayyip (Turkish PM) must resign".
(Photo by EPA/The Telegraph)

True facts about governance in Turkey comes to light through the unrest that started in Taksim Square and expanded in other major cities. No matter how much Ankara may want to enter the European Union or belong to the "West", the way this situation was managed by the government revealed the inability of using democratic methods to solve interior crises.

Regarding the huge amounts of tear gas and the brutality used to suppress the protesters, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not seem willing to show any compunction about the violence towards the gathered people. Expressing his prospects and decisions about this situation can confuse and might be considered by the listener as an authoritarian leader. He sounds like a politician and a man who does not accept an opinion different than his. Due to these characteristics, his profile is similar to some dictators (without implying that he is one), rather than to European leaders.

Number one in imprisoned journalists, manipulation of media, a considerable number of unsolved issues with neighbors and minorities, refusal to recognize many genocides, four coups d'etat since 1960 (including the 1997 military memorandum, characterized also as a "postmodern coup"), and now, a hardcore suppression of the people protesting against a pertinacious Prime Minister who is planning on tightening alcohol rules and forbidding public display of affection, the political system and governance in Turkey tries to find a way into the European Union.

However, the most dangerous move of the Turkish PM is not his refusal to apologize for the excessive use of violence and the lack of any conversation with the protesters. What could make him look like a leader of previous centuries with a total ignorance of the term "diplomacy" is his indirect (at least until the moment this article was published) call of his supporters to react to the Taksim Square movement. "There is an end to our patience" Erdogan said, with rage in his voice, in front of a crowd that was chanting its will to die for him. Such words, to such an audience, are far from helpful for this social unrest and could lead to clashes between masses of the people, to an uprising and of course to situations beyond any control.

Prime Minister Erdogan should think twice. His intransigence and hence a socially and politically  unstable Turkey, will not be only a national issue, but also a major risk for Turkey's allies during this period of turmoil in the Middle East, and many steps back regarding the country's aims to come closer to the European Union.

New energy roads: Trans Adriatic Pipeline Pt.2

On 13th of January 2013, the trilateral Intergovernmental Agreement regarding the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) was signed. Greece, Italy and Albania took a big step towards the final choice of TAP as the exclusive one to transport the gas from Azerbaijan to Europe, by the Shah Deniz consortium.

The Agreement was signed by the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs Dimitris Avramopoulos, the Italian Minister of Development Corrado Passera, and the Albanian Minister of Economy, Trade and Energy Edmond Haxhinasto. The ceremony took place  at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Athens, Greece, with the presence of officers from the Azerbaijani government, the TAP consortium (Statoil, Axpo, E.ON Ruhrgas) and the Shah Deniz consortium (BP, Socar, Total). It has to be noted that on the occasion of his visit in Greece, Eric Rubin, the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State was also present to the ceremony.

The Italian Minister Corrado Passera pointed out the important role of TAP as a strategic infrastructure to strengthen the security of supplying energy  to Europe. Mr. Passera made clear that the plan of his government is to turn Italy into the main gas hub of Southern Europe and added that his country should play an important  role within the general European Energy Policy.

On their side, Greek Minister Dimitris Avramopoulos and Prime Minister Antonis Samaras noted the establishment of a new framework of cooperation with Italy and Albania, and the strategic role of the project for the energy security in the European Union. Mr. Samaras mentioned the advantages of TAP compared to the other pipelines planned for the region (shorter route, lower cost, smalled number of countries involved), and said that Greece is determined to attract even more foreign investors in the country.

Finally, the Agreement was welcomed by the European Commissioner for Energy, Günther Oettinger, who expressed the full support of the European Commission towards the Trans Adriatic Pipeline project and added that this agreement has set the legal framework for the pipeline. "This is another important step towards our aim to get gas directly from the Caspian Region" the EU Energy Commissioner said.

However, for the moment, the members involved in this project can only wait until June 2013 in order to find out if TAP will be the pipeline chosen to transport the Caspian gas in Europe, through the South.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.

New energy roads: Trans Adriatic Pipeline Pt.1

The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), is the project of the homonymous company that plans to build and develop the pipeline  which will transfer the natural gas from the Shah Deniz II in Azerbaijan, to Europe, through Greece, Italy and Albania. The company shareholders are the SwissEGL, the Norwegian Statoil and the German E.ON Ruhrgas; the two first hold 42.5% of the shares respectively, while the latter holds 15%. TAP will be the pipeline which will connect Middle East with Europe, opening the “Southern Gas Corridor”.

It is estimated that TAP will have a transportation capacity of approximately 10 bcm per year, depending on demands. Pipeline’s length will be approximately 800 km; 478 km will be in Greek, 204 km in Albanian and 5 km in Italian territory, while 105 km will be across the Adriatic Sea.

On 27th of September, the States of Greece, Italy and Albania, signed a Memorandum of Understanding in New York, providing officially their support towards the project. The three Foreign Ministers, Dimitris Avramopoulos (Greece), Giulio Terzi (Italy) and Edmond Panariti (Albania), along with company representatives, signed this MoU, affirming the necessary backing -in governmental level- of the pipeline construction and proper function.

It is clear that European Union makes efforts to cut its dependence on the Russian gas supplies, by reaching the Caspian Sea reserves and the Azerbaijan development of Shah Deniz through other routes. Russia provides EU with approximately 25% of its needs, so Trans Adriatic Pipeline is expected to be a milestone to the change of this dependence.

Of course, TAP is not the only project of gas transportation at this region. The alternative projects include the Nabucco Pipeline, also known as “Turkey-Austria Pipeline”, which will include Austria, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, the Greece-Italy Pipeline, which will include Greece and Italy, and the South Stream project, that will include Russia, Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Italy, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia and Turkey.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.

Provoking The Balkan Neighbors: Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia

Illustration from Eurodialogue.org

It would not be an exaggeration to say that the current period is one of the most peaceful the Balkans have seen, from the beginning of times until today. The region’s states are preserving a network of positive communication, and efforts are being made towards an even more stable future, besides some ultra-nationalist voices that exist in every country. Of course, the level of goodwill differs from country to country, but the diplomatic network seems to be in a relatively good way.

However, the Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia seems to be the laggard in the list of the states that seek calmness in this – once turbulent – part of Europe. Some of the issues of ethnic minorities has been solved, but only up to some point, like the one of the Albanian minority that counts up to 30% of the population. Ethnic Albanians still claim that they are often victims of hidden discrimination, including by public officials, and as all minority groups in FYROM, they also face problems because of the heavy influence of the political parties on the educational system.

Regarding the foreign affairs, Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia have some serious unresolved issues which, despite the international efforts, seem to be managed with stagnant policies, like the name issue with Greece. Despite the fact that the United Nations have intervened to the conversations between the two States, and that there has been a number of diplomatic concessions by the Greek side, FYROM keeps on facing this problem strictly demanding and not negotiating. Athens, during the long period of the name dispute, has been resilient, changing their stance from the strict “no Macedonia term” policy, to an acceptance of the use of the term within the name, under some negotiable conditions; they also have offered a big number of facilitations to the FYROM citizens and entrepreneurs, mainly through the Interim Accord (eg. the free use of the Thessaloniki Port), most of which are valid until today. On the other hand, an example that comes in mind, about Skopje lacking of goodwill to resolve this issue, is that the students in FYROM are officially taught that a large part of Macedonia, the North Greek Province, including Thessaloniki, the second largest city of Greece, belongs to them and is under Greek occupation.

Lately, Skopje stirs up the relations with its Eastern neighbors, Bulgaria. Using offensive language, the so called “World Macedonian Congress” – that is adjacent to the ruling party VMRO-DPMNE – says that there are almost no ethnic Bulgarians in Bulgaria and the majority of the population is of “Macedonian” origin. FYROM authorities continue by stating that this “Macedonian majority” in Bulgaria, live under a brutal oppression. The President of the “World Macedonian Congress” rhetorically asks in his article in the newspaper Vecer “[...] whether there are Bulgarians in Bulgaria without Macedonian roots” and goes on suggesting that Bulgaria needs to have ethnic “Macedonians” in order to keep the demographic balance in time and space.

The aggressive policy towards Bulgaria is similar to the one that was used towards Greece. One important similarity is the falsification of cultural and historical facts, in order to create a background able to add a prestige to the international image of the newly born State. And FYROM authotities seem willing to do everything to persuade the world about this background.

During the last years, a new project called “Skopje 2014″ takes place in the capital of FYROM, aiming to be part of the brand new “ancient” and “medieval” profile of the country. This includes statues of Alexander The Great, King Philippos II, Saints Cyril and Methodius, Tsar Samuel and many more, all taken from Greek and Bulgarian history. The project moves in rapid pace, as the authorities try to cloak the historical misinformations and falsifications. But what most do not know is that this project has a budget estimated at over €200 million. An amount of money extremely high to be spent just for the decoration of a city’s center; at the same time, the country faces economic crisis, unemployment rate is near 40% and the population that lives below the poverty line is around 30%.

Former Prime Minister and Vice-President of FYROM, Mr. Ljubco Georgievski, has stated in a recent interview on Bulgarian TV that “The center of Skopje looks like Disneyland or Asterix Park in Paris. There are no cultural events and in the rest of the country, they don’t even build roads. In my opinion they work on a ‘caricature of ideas’ in the city of Skopje”.

The “antiqization” of Skopje also includes new buildings, constructed in baroque, Roman or Hellenistic design, styles which as Vangel Bosinovski, one of the architects of the project mentions, have been initially created by “Macedonians”.

Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia does not seem to conduct itself with respect towards its neighbors, continuing its intransigent policy to every diplomatic issue, especially with Greece and Bulgaria. However, considering that two of the country’s top foreign policy priorities are the NATO membership and the candidacy for European Union membership, the regional politcal behavior is a paradox, because both Greece and Bulgaria are holding a full membership in both of the aforementioned organizations, while Albania holds a NATO membership. These positions allows them to diplomatically point out the incompatibility of FYROM with the principles of NATO and -especially- European Union, focusing on the lack of respect of culture and history, and the absence of goodwill to solve these serious issues.

The struggle of Skopje to “create” a background and a new identity for their nation by falsifying the history of its neighbors, and the denial to face the reality about the oppressed minorities within its borders, may lead FYROM to a situation where blinded by its obsessions, it will get alienated from the Balkan and the European family.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.

Unwanted In Their Own Homeland: Christians Of Pakistan

When comes to religion issues and rights, Pakistan seems obsolete and unforgiving. There are numerous reports of attacks, threats and convictions of Christians, many of which take place due to insignificant reasons, or even just because of religious diversity.

With the Muslim population counting 178,100,000, Pakistan is the second most populous Muslim-majority country. Christians and Hindus are estimated at around 1.6% of the population each,  with Islam representing the 97% – most of them Sunni. There are also the Ahmadi religious minority, who -against their wish- were declared non-Muslims and count for about 2.3%. Apart from the Christian population, Hindus and Ahmadis also face hostility and persecution.

Although actions of aggression take place all over the country, - in outermost provinces and in capital and large cities making it difficult to be recorded - a significant number of them comes to light, revealing the authoritarian side of Islam in Pakistan and the hostility that Christians (and not only) face. The latest incident took place in Karachi, the largest city and financial center of Pakistan, where a Muslim mob attacked the Christian district Essa Nagri, shooting and killing a man; right after, Christians gathered to protest against this attack, however, police used tear gas and opened fire against the Christian protest, instead of arresting the Muslim mob. From the police shootings, a local priest, Pastor Cornelius was injured and was taken to hospital in a critical condition.

Another recent incident is the case of Rimsha Masih, an 11-year-old girl that suffers from Down’s Syndrome. Rimsha was accused of desecrating Quran by setting some pages of it on fire.  In the court, girl’s lawyers said that these accusations -like many that were made against Christians- were false, in order to enforce the Christian community leave the area. Rimsha is kept in prison, facing the sentence of Quran desecration – in Pakistan is punishable by death. By many, the United Nations are expected to intervene to this case.

“Pakistan in the worst place for Christians in the world” says Dr. Nazir Bhatti, President of the Pakistan Christian Congress.

On the other side, absoluteness would be a mistake , regarding the offensive character of Islam towards Christians in Pakistan. A number of officials and representatives of the Muslim community, along with common people, stand by the side of Christians when they cope with these situations, and acknowledging the brutalities that take place, point out the need to prevent the “law of the jungle” from going on. Pakistani Islamic leaders and Muslim councils are eager to support, Rimsha Masih, demanding her release.

It is a fact that aggression seems endless. Christian women are constantly raped and abused, often even killed. Entire neighborhoods are threatened and terrorized in order to convert to Islam or force them to leave. And of course, repeated attacks, sometimes lethal, make Christians feel the religious hate, unable to protect themselves, their families and their belongings – unable to live with no fear.

It is practically impossible to report all the known incidents against Christians in Pakistan, not even just the recent ones. And it seems impossible for these people, along with the rest of the religious minorities, to live with the feeling of security and equality within the Pakistani society. A solution must be found, and a considerable one could be given by the cooperation  of the Pakistani Muslim leaders who respect religious and human rights, with the United Nations, to help Pakistani society and State make a few steps towards the freedom of religion.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.

Israel vs Iran: Considering The Risks

   During the last months, a number of scenarios were created, regarding the statements of possible attack against Iran, made by Israeli officials. When these plans were initially revealed, it was considered by most as a threatening tactic aiming to some results. First of all, to send a warning to Iran in order to realize that its persistence to continue the classified nuclear program was provoking the international nuclear warfare stability. Second, to direct West’s attention to the Islamic Republic’s possible nuclear weapons plans, indirectly asking for urgent international action. On the other hand, not many were the ones that considered Israel’s threat as a realistic one.

   However, as the time goes by, the statements regarding an attack against Iranian nuclear targets are far from toning down, increasing the likelihood of an action like this to take place. It is important to understand that concerning its words’ reliability and international prestige, Israel may getting close -or has already passed- the point of no return. Passing this point may mean that the planned attack is unavoidable, or else Israel will show weakness and lack of determination.

   Although, since a counter-attack of Iran is more than certain to follow strikes launched by Israel, the progress and the outcome of a possible conflict must be taken under consideration. United States do not seem so willing to get involved in another war, especially in Middle East, so Israel may not have its most important ally by its side. Moreover, Iran has quite effective anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, and despite the quality and ability of the Israeli Air Force, the Islamic Republic, estimating the -expressed- hostility of many capable enemies, has created a powerful shield to protect the precious nuclear secrets. By the same way of thinking, the constantly and publicly expressed dissatisfaction about its uranium enrichment program, has certainly led the Iran decision-makers to the “fortification” of the nuclear facilities, possibly rendering them capable to withstand heavy air strikes. Of course, the ability of Iran striking back is far from debatable, and even if Israel’s defense system has high capability, it cannot guarantee 100 percent success intercepting a rain of ballistic missiles from the enraged Iran.

   It is very important to realize that until today, the secretiveness was the main characteristic of any defense and weapon program of the Islamic Republic. Therefore, there is a possibility of Iranian Armed Forces to already possess Weapons of Mass Destruction, including nuclear bombs that are not so unlikely to have been developed under the shadows of mysticism in the fully equipped laboratories. This scenario, has to be taken under serious consideration and if proven valid, the main tactic of Israel and the West, regarding the nuclear deterrence issue, should be the approach expressed by General Andre Beaufre, who thought that within a nuclear scenario, the military action must be avoided; victory should be achieved by eliminating the enemy through indirect actions and ways.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.

Iran Boosting Assad's Morale

   Alliances has always been an important fact that defined the determination and the morale of an army. Warlords who know that their moves and decisions are backed by third nations perceive this support as an approval of their actions and have, at some scale, the security to go on; from the soldiers' point of view, this support boosts their morale through the sense that there is a power that may provide assistance to them, and justify their struggle.

   During the civil conflict that started in March 2011 in Syria, alliances to both sides have been an issue of discussion in diplomatic circles and international security councils. Nations and international organizations have been involved, siding either with President Bashar Al-Assad or the opposition and the Free Syrian Army, in direct or indirect ways.

   One critical supporter of the Syrian Arab Republic government is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Support to President Assad have repeatedly been expressed by Iranian diplomats and officials, however, the Islamic Republic denied the accusations concerning any military support to the regime, at least until now. To some point, it seems reasonable for Iran, which is dominated by the Twelver Shia branch of Islam, to support an Alawite (Alawites also follow a branch of Twelver school of Shia) leader who fights against a revolutionary army mainly consisting of Sunnis. Even during the clashes in Aleppo, top Iranian officials visited the regime leader.

   President Bashar Al-Assad considers the support from Iran to be crucial in his efforts to establish his power in Syria again. He is aware that there are nations that wish to see him fall, like United States, the nations of European Union, Israel, Turkey, and many more. But what he also knows is that Iran is a considerable power in the wider region. The Islamic Republic keeps an offensive stance towards the West and most of Assad's out-of-the-borders foes, long before the Syrian Uprising. Combining this aggression with a capable war machine and a classified nuclear programme not allowed to be subject to any international control, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be a dangerous enemy to confront, possibly an enemy with no moral limits, able to even use his nuclear arsenal to prevail. And as Carl Von Klausewitz mentions in his work "On War", the one who uses the power with no mercy, will gain an advantage towards his enemy. Westerners may think twice before coming face to face with Iran in favor of Syria; a military intervention could give Ahmadinejad the excuse to move against them, on the side of Assad, something that may lead to a wider, dangerous,  maybe catastrophic for many,  collision.

   The regime President, backed up by a nuclear, unconventional ally, can foresee the skeptical moves and decisions of the  West against him, so he keeps on fighting his war. His army, have not only their morale boosted by this alliance, but also an indirect assistance, since according to sources, Iran specialists have already been sent in Syria, training militia and special paramilitary groups in order to provide the regime's Syrian Army with support and some rest after the 18 months of fighting.

   However, every situation has its limits, and Assad has to realise that a single big ally, no matter how supportive to you, and dangerous to the rest may appear, does not render a de facto sense of security, especially when this ally is a nation always pending to deal with its own defense, security and military issues.

India Ballistic Missile Program Goes On

Agni-II during a parade in India.

   Once more, a successful trial launch of ballistic missile took place in India, and specifically on Wheeler island (Bay of Bengal), within the country's efforts to upgrade its efficiency in nuclear deterrence. As director of Integrated Test Range, M. V. K. V. Prasad said, this user trial that was carried out by army personnel, was 100 percent successful.

   The medium-range missile that was tested, was Agni-II, part of the Agni series that are manufactured in India. Agni-II operational range is 2,000 to 3,000 kilometers, which means it is able to fully cover South Asia, almost all Southeast and East Asia, and part of the Middle East. Of course, the range totally covers the Indian Ocean. Agni-II was first tested in 1999 and since then, is in service, exclusively used by the Indian Army. Its warhead capability is 1,000 kg, and although it is compatible with different types, the strategic nuclear of 15 to 250 kilotons is the most important to be mentioned. The latest version of Agni-II is powered by a solid rocket propellant system, has an accuracy of 30 meters and is guided by an advanced command and control center.

Agni missile series range. (illustration by M. Phoenix)

   India seems determined to ensure and possibly strengthen its position among the nations equipped with nuclear weapons. The ballistic missiles were built mainly having Pakistan and China in mind, the main rivals of India. The entire Agni series is able to strike anywhere in Pakistan and most of the series' missiles are also able to cover the entire Chinese territory. Although Indian officials have repeatedly emphasized the nation's strict "no first strike" policy, the regional arms competition is a fact, mostly among India and the aforementioned two states. On the other hand, U.S. seems to be quite undisturbed by the Indian nuclear program, possibly due to the choice of New Delhi not to manufacture missiles with range over 5,000 km, in order not to ring any alarm bells in Washington.

   Right now, India is the sixth nation with an intercontinental ballistic missile capability, following United States, Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, Great Britain and France.

Iraqi Kurdistan-Turkey Relations, At A Glance.

Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani (L)
and Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. (AP photo) 

   The conflict between Turkey and Kurdish groups who demand an independent or autonomous Kurdistan for their ethnic group, along with political and cultural rights within the Turkish Republic, seems like it is far from coming to an end. Insurgents of the Kurdistan Worker Party (PKK) and other rebel groups carry out attacks mainly in Southern-Eastern Turkey, and Turkish police and army, clashes with Kurdish protesters, both committing numerous human rights abuses.

   Of course, Iraqi Kurdistan could not be excluded from this vicious circle, since this Kurdish autonomous region within the Iraqi borders is a basic launchpad for the insurgents acting in Turkey. When Kurdistan Regional Government claimed insufficiency of military forces to prevent PKK and other groups from operating, despite the fact that this region is within Iraqi territory, Turkish Air and Ground Forces have repeatedly violated the airspace and borders of their neighbor state, striking possible targets in the region and causing reactions of both Iraqi government and the Kurdish Autonomous Region's leaders.

   The tension in the region, at both sides of the Iraq-Turkey borders, seemed to impede any form of cooperation between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had once said Iraqi Kurdish regional President was a "bandit", and accused the latter's government for not doing enough to stop rebel groups. From the Turkish point of view, PKK was fighting against the Turkish State in favor of the rights of all Kurds.

   However, the deeper, great fear of Turkey, according to analysts, was not the current conflict, but the possibility of Iraqi Kurdistan's declaration of independence as a new state. Ankara was able to realize that this action would mean the stimulation of the feelings of the Kurdish population within the Turkish borders, and their desire to declare independence too, by any means. So, any kind of political, economic or diplomatic development of Iraqi Kurdistan, may have been against Turkey's interests.

   But lately, as the wider region's situation became unstable, the facts of this relationship started to change. The crisis in Iraq, with Sunni opposition groups and Kurds fighting against Shi'ite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and the continuous conflicts in mutual neighbor, Syria, brought the leadership of Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan closer. Turkish officials have even made statements about the international role of the Iraqi Kurds, and said that they consider them as an important ally, while formal visits of Regional Government's President and Prime Minister took place in Turkey, strengthening the bonds between the two leaderships.

   An important fact which consists an addition to this relation's built-up, is the growing tension between Turkey and Iraq's central government. Although there are periods during which Iraq and Turkey cooperate, frictions in diplomatic and political level often take place. A recent one, happened when Iraq accused Turkey for violating its airspace and striking targets within the Iraqi borders. Ankara said that the strikes were on suspected PKK militant targets, and Iraq threatened to protest to the UN for the massive violations of its airspace by warplanes and helicopters.  Through these frictions, the relations of Iraqi Kurdistan with Turkey, sometimes find their ways to bloom.

    Lately, energy trade issues consists the new link between Ankara and Iraqi Kurds. Turkey officially stated that started importing five to ten road tankers of crude from the autonomous Kurdish region, after signing an agreement only with the Regional Government of Iraqi Kurdistan, without going through Iraq's central government, and added that according to plans, the volume may rise up to one or two hundred tankers per day. A more stable and organized energy alliance between Turkey and Kurdish region of Iraq could create stronger bonds between them. Of course, Baghdad strongly opposes to these plans, even at the current limited scale, since the Iraqi government considers the oil exports without official state permission, illegal and illegitimate. What Baghdad says is that oil is property of all Iraqi people and no export should take place without being organised and agreed by the central government, and warns Turkey that this action could seriously damage their trade relations.

   However, the reactions of Iraqi state towards both Ankara and the autonomous region, may lead to a tightening of the relations between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan, since their energy bonds, combined with the aforementioned reasons for the two leaderships to come closer, could consist a platform for a future stable alliance. Of course, what should always be kept in mind is the wider and longitudinal situation between Kurds and the Turkish state.

Status Of The Russian Radar Station In Azerbaijan.

Qabala Radar Station, Azerbaijan (Reuters / Sergei Karpukhin)

   Qabala Radar, named after the homonymous city in the northern Azerbaijan, is a Daryal (or Pechora) type of radar, whose construction started in 1978 and completed in 1984 by the USSR, entering service in 1985. The Daryal type is bistatic and uses the phased-array technology. It belongs to the category of the early warning radars and occupies an area of 210 hectares. It's range is 3.728 miles or approximately 6.000 kilometers, able to detect missile launches even from Indian Ocean. It gives also the opportunity for enabling a missile defense, since it is able to detect the missile's trajectory. The Qabala Radar Station hosts about 1000 Russian servicemen, and the whole station, including the 30 hectares garbage dump, covers an area of 240 hectares. 

   In 2002, negotiations between Russia and Azerbaijan governments, resulted into a lease plan according to which, Russia would be able to keep operating the Qabala Radar in favor of its early-warning defense system until 2012. According to sources, the annual payment agreed was 7 million US dollars. 

   Vladimir Putin, the president of Russian Federation, watching the debates of the USA about planning to deploy an anti-ballistic missile system in Eastern Europe with the excuse of the possible hostility of Iran, Iraq and North Korea, offered to the US the chance of a cooperation in this defense section by providing the Qabala Radar as a substitute to the initial USA plan that included a radar system in Czech Republic and 10 interceptor rockets in Poland. In September 2007, an experts' delegation from USA, visited the Qabala Radar and was given an extended tour to the facilities. After that, the head of the delegation, General Patrick O'Reilly, mentioned that there were no formal negotiations, adding that the visit took place in order for the US to fully understand the nature and details of the Russian proposal. Although, United States ended up rejecting this proposal, claiming that the existing radar system was not sophisticated enough to cover the demands of their anti-ballistic missile plan. They also insisted in going on with their plan about Czech Republic and Poland, a decision that has been made clear during the meeting between Putin and Bush, when the latter said that “the Czech Republic and Poland need to be an integral part of the system”, in International Herald Tribune. 

   As the leasing plan of the Qabala Radar Station approaches to its deadline, Russia starts negotiations with Azerbaijan about expanding the agreement. Within the proposals of the Federation are the “[...] plans for the modernization of the radar station,” as Russian Defense Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov have said to RIA-Novosti. 

     Latest Updates

   However, according to latest updates, Baku demands a serious rise in the annual rent, by tens of times, causing confusion and reactions to Moscow. Sources mention that the demanded rent for the contract to be renewed -until 2025 as Russia wishes- is around $300 million per year. Taking under consideration that until now, Russia had to pay $7 million per year, this rise, along with the cost of the necessary repair and maintenance, leads the Russian Defense Ministry to no other alternative than quitting the project and Russia's presence in Qabala, if the economic terms of Azerbaijan remain intransigent.

For an extended research of the Russian Radar Station in Azerbaijan, see Black Sea Military Dynamics: the Reemergence Of Russia.