During the last months, a number of scenarios were created, regarding the statements of possible attack against Iran, made by Israeli officials. When these plans were initially revealed, it was considered by most as a threatening tactic aiming to some results. First of all, to send a warning to Iran in order to realize that its persistence to continue the classified nuclear program was provoking the international nuclear warfare stability. Second, to direct West’s attention to the Islamic Republic’s possible nuclear weapons plans, indirectly asking for urgent international action. On the other hand, not many were the ones that considered Israel’s threat as a realistic one.
However, as the time goes by, the statements regarding an attack against Iranian nuclear targets are far from toning down, increasing the likelihood of an action like this to take place. It is important to understand that concerning its words’ reliability and international prestige, Israel may getting close -or has already passed- the point of no return. Passing this point may mean that the planned attack is unavoidable, or else Israel will show weakness and lack of determination.
Although, since a counter-attack of Iran is more than certain to follow strikes launched by Israel, the progress and the outcome of a possible conflict must be taken under consideration. United States do not seem so willing to get involved in another war, especially in Middle East, so Israel may not have its most important ally by its side. Moreover, Iran has quite effective anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, and despite the quality and ability of the Israeli Air Force, the Islamic Republic, estimating the -expressed- hostility of many capable enemies, has created a powerful shield to protect the precious nuclear secrets. By the same way of thinking, the constantly and publicly expressed dissatisfaction about its uranium enrichment program, has certainly led the Iran decision-makers to the “fortification” of the nuclear facilities, possibly rendering them capable to withstand heavy air strikes. Of course, the ability of Iran striking back is far from debatable, and even if Israel’s defense system has high capability, it cannot guarantee 100 percent success intercepting a rain of ballistic missiles from the enraged Iran.
It is very important to realize that until today, the secretiveness was the main characteristic of any defense and weapon program of the Islamic Republic. Therefore, there is a possibility of Iranian Armed Forces to already possess Weapons of Mass Destruction, including nuclear bombs that are not so unlikely to have been developed under the shadows of mysticism in the fully equipped laboratories. This scenario, has to be taken under serious consideration and if proven valid, the main tactic of Israel and the West, regarding the nuclear deterrence issue, should be the approach expressed by General Andre Beaufre, who thought that within a nuclear scenario, the military action must be avoided; victory should be achieved by eliminating the enemy through indirect actions and ways.
Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.
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