Russian military presence in Sevastopol, Crimea.

   The following is part of the 2011 research "Black Sea Military Dynamics - The Reemergence Of Russia, Military Presence In Black Sea States" by Giorgos Dimitriadis, and gives some details regarding the Russian forces deployed at Sevastopol, Crimea, in Ukraine. Crimea is currently one of the main theaters of political unrest that takes place in Ukraine.

   "The main base of Russian Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol, that is subject to the 1997 agreement between Moscow and Kiev governments, has been many times issue of discussion and argumentation, mainly for the two implicated states. As mentioned before, Russians leased the port until 2017, paying $100 million dollars to Ukraine every year. Through the last years, both sides were calling upon this agreement during the aforementioned discussions, although they were tending to attach different meanings to its clauses, meanings that were respectively beneficial to each one of them. Until recently, Ukrainian deputies were showing the way out to the Russian Fleet, proposing to start the joint planning of the evacuation of the leased Ukrainian bases and the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to the Russian coasts. However, the Russian side continuously insisted on avoiding even to accept the possibility of the agreement's termination in 2017 and stayed clear from any official discussions about this option. 

   On 21st of April 2010, the ambiguous scenarios about this issue came to an end. Presidents Viktor Yanukovich of Ukraine and Dmitri Medvedev of Russia signed a new agreement extending the leasing of the Ukrainian bases for the Russian Fleet until 2042, with a further extension option to 2047. The deal was that in return for accepting this new agreement, Ukraine will have a discount of thirty percent (30%) on the price of the Russian natural gas imported. More detailed, the new agreement will grant Ukraine a discount of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas in the case the benchmark rate is above $330 or a discount of 30% if the rate is lower than that. Until the new agreement, Ukraine was paying $305 per 1,000 cubic meters.

 Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government met a lot of critics for this agreement. Viktor Yanukovich who has often -before and after the agreement- been characterized as a Kremlin stooge by his opponents, noted his strong belief that he did the best for his country and said that the Russian Fleet will be a security guarantee for Ukraine and the Black Sea. On the other hand, international analysts noted that with this move, Ukraine buried every chance for entering NATO for the next four decades and many Ukrainian opposition politicians claimed that this decision violates the country's constitution.

   In October 2011, through the Defense Minister Mykhaylo Yezhel, Ukrainian government announced the positive answer to the Russian question about the Black Sea Fleet rennovation raised in 2010. Minister Yezhel said that “the average service life of a warship is 25-30 years. It is only natural that the (current) ships will be replaced, and that is the subject of negotiations.” This was underlined by the minister because the primary lease agreement was not allowing the increase of the ships number, however, under the extension of the lease until 2042, some of the old, outdated ships must be replaced. The BSF is expected to receive 15 new frigates and diesel electric submarines by 2020."

   You can find the full chapter regarding the Russian Base in Sevastopol, Ukraine, as well as the full research about the Russian Forces in the Black Sea region here.

Is the Ukrainian unity and stability certain?

   Of course, the desired answer is "Yes". However, amidst the reports of the rapid changes in the political scene and the unrest of the society in Ukraine, the fear of a partition appears. Although Yanukovych was ousted by the PMs and Tymoshenko was, at last, set free, it is a fact that the (former) Ukrainian President has a lot of supporters in the eastern part of the country.

-courtesy of The Washington Post online-

   Without comparing anything else but the opposition and the support feelings expressed towards political leaders, the recent history of clashes between opponents and supporters of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt should be taken under consideration during the political process of the following period, while in the situation of Ukraine, even fears of a country division are already expressed.

   The theory of expressing the possibility of a division, although not desirable, is not extreme. A mix of factors as the aforementioned, the political/social instability, the economic situation and the external influences could become the keystone for a possible East-West partition of Ukraine. This is why in order to avoid this scenario, the new leadership must use a mild and diplomatic policy, side by side with the European Union.

Clashes in Kiev, a drawback for europhile Ukrainians.

   Escalation of the riots in Kiev, Ukraine, continues, increasing the death toll to extremely high numbers. The "Euromaidan" movement, is being transformed into violent and bloody clashes, raising fears about the possibility of extended nationwide internal conflicts or even a civil war.

Clashes in Kiyv, Ukraine. (courtesy of Reuters/Vasily Fedosenko)

   The beginning of all this was the reaction (right, according to many) of the Europhile Ukrainian citizens to the decision of Yanukovich to stop any negotiation related to the desired agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. However it is important for every Ukrainian, citizen or opposition party leader, who supports a cooperation and a possible future membership of the country with the EU, to realize that their dreams are in a jeopardy, this time not because of their President, but because of crossing the lines regarding their reactions.

   The hardcore clashes that can easy turn into a civil war (especially when there are reports of rioters/civilians who obtained handguns and light weapons) can only take a country away from its goal to become part of the Union. Every day of deep instability and internal conflicts is a step backwards for the possibility of Ukraine to achieve any kind of agreement with Europe.