Σάββατο 18 Αυγούστου 2012

Iran Boosting Assad's Morale

   Alliances has always been an important fact that defined the determination and the morale of an army. Warlords who know that their moves and decisions are backed by third nations perceive this support as an approval of their actions and have, at some scale, the security to go on; from the soldiers' point of view, this support boosts their morale through the sense that there is a power that may provide assistance to them, and justify their struggle.

   During the civil conflict that started in March 2011 in Syria, alliances to both sides have been an issue of discussion in diplomatic circles and international security councils. Nations and international organizations have been involved, siding either with President Bashar Al-Assad or the opposition and the Free Syrian Army, in direct or indirect ways.

   One critical supporter of the Syrian Arab Republic government is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Support to President Assad have repeatedly been expressed by Iranian diplomats and officials, however, the Islamic Republic denied the accusations concerning any military support to the regime, at least until now. To some point, it seems reasonable for Iran, which is dominated by the Twelver Shia branch of Islam, to support an Alawite (Alawites also follow a branch of Twelver school of Shia) leader who fights against a revolutionary army mainly consisting of Sunnis. Even during the clashes in Aleppo, top Iranian officials visited the regime leader.

   President Bashar Al-Assad considers the support from Iran to be crucial in his efforts to establish his power in Syria again. He is aware that there are nations that wish to see him fall, like United States, the nations of European Union, Israel, Turkey, and many more. But what he also knows is that Iran is a considerable power in the wider region. The Islamic Republic keeps an offensive stance towards the West and most of Assad's out-of-the-borders foes, long before the Syrian Uprising. Combining this aggression with a capable war machine and a classified nuclear programme not allowed to be subject to any international control, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to be a dangerous enemy to confront, possibly an enemy with no moral limits, able to even use his nuclear arsenal to prevail. And as Carl Von Klausewitz mentions in his work "On War", the one who uses the power with no mercy, will gain an advantage towards his enemy. Westerners may think twice before coming face to face with Iran in favor of Syria; a military intervention could give Ahmadinejad the excuse to move against them, on the side of Assad, something that may lead to a wider, dangerous,  maybe catastrophic for many,  collision.

   The regime President, backed up by a nuclear, unconventional ally, can foresee the skeptical moves and decisions of the  West against him, so he keeps on fighting his war. His army, have not only their morale boosted by this alliance, but also an indirect assistance, since according to sources, Iran specialists have already been sent in Syria, training militia and special paramilitary groups in order to provide the regime's Syrian Army with support and some rest after the 18 months of fighting.

   However, every situation has its limits, and Assad has to realise that a single big ally, no matter how supportive to you, and dangerous to the rest may appear, does not render a de facto sense of security, especially when this ally is a nation always pending to deal with its own defense, security and military issues.

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