Russian military presence in Sevastopol, Crimea.

   The following is part of the 2011 research "Black Sea Military Dynamics - The Reemergence Of Russia, Military Presence In Black Sea States" by Giorgos Dimitriadis, and gives some details regarding the Russian forces deployed at Sevastopol, Crimea, in Ukraine. Crimea is currently one of the main theaters of political unrest that takes place in Ukraine.

   "The main base of Russian Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol, that is subject to the 1997 agreement between Moscow and Kiev governments, has been many times issue of discussion and argumentation, mainly for the two implicated states. As mentioned before, Russians leased the port until 2017, paying $100 million dollars to Ukraine every year. Through the last years, both sides were calling upon this agreement during the aforementioned discussions, although they were tending to attach different meanings to its clauses, meanings that were respectively beneficial to each one of them. Until recently, Ukrainian deputies were showing the way out to the Russian Fleet, proposing to start the joint planning of the evacuation of the leased Ukrainian bases and the relocation of the Black Sea Fleet to the Russian coasts. However, the Russian side continuously insisted on avoiding even to accept the possibility of the agreement's termination in 2017 and stayed clear from any official discussions about this option. 

   On 21st of April 2010, the ambiguous scenarios about this issue came to an end. Presidents Viktor Yanukovich of Ukraine and Dmitri Medvedev of Russia signed a new agreement extending the leasing of the Ukrainian bases for the Russian Fleet until 2042, with a further extension option to 2047. The deal was that in return for accepting this new agreement, Ukraine will have a discount of thirty percent (30%) on the price of the Russian natural gas imported. More detailed, the new agreement will grant Ukraine a discount of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas in the case the benchmark rate is above $330 or a discount of 30% if the rate is lower than that. Until the new agreement, Ukraine was paying $305 per 1,000 cubic meters.

 Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government met a lot of critics for this agreement. Viktor Yanukovich who has often -before and after the agreement- been characterized as a Kremlin stooge by his opponents, noted his strong belief that he did the best for his country and said that the Russian Fleet will be a security guarantee for Ukraine and the Black Sea. On the other hand, international analysts noted that with this move, Ukraine buried every chance for entering NATO for the next four decades and many Ukrainian opposition politicians claimed that this decision violates the country's constitution.

   In October 2011, through the Defense Minister Mykhaylo Yezhel, Ukrainian government announced the positive answer to the Russian question about the Black Sea Fleet rennovation raised in 2010. Minister Yezhel said that “the average service life of a warship is 25-30 years. It is only natural that the (current) ships will be replaced, and that is the subject of negotiations.” This was underlined by the minister because the primary lease agreement was not allowing the increase of the ships number, however, under the extension of the lease until 2042, some of the old, outdated ships must be replaced. The BSF is expected to receive 15 new frigates and diesel electric submarines by 2020."

   You can find the full chapter regarding the Russian Base in Sevastopol, Ukraine, as well as the full research about the Russian Forces in the Black Sea region here.

Is the Ukrainian unity and stability certain?

   Of course, the desired answer is "Yes". However, amidst the reports of the rapid changes in the political scene and the unrest of the society in Ukraine, the fear of a partition appears. Although Yanukovych was ousted by the PMs and Tymoshenko was, at last, set free, it is a fact that the (former) Ukrainian President has a lot of supporters in the eastern part of the country.

-courtesy of The Washington Post online-

   Without comparing anything else but the opposition and the support feelings expressed towards political leaders, the recent history of clashes between opponents and supporters of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt should be taken under consideration during the political process of the following period, while in the situation of Ukraine, even fears of a country division are already expressed.

   The theory of expressing the possibility of a division, although not desirable, is not extreme. A mix of factors as the aforementioned, the political/social instability, the economic situation and the external influences could become the keystone for a possible East-West partition of Ukraine. This is why in order to avoid this scenario, the new leadership must use a mild and diplomatic policy, side by side with the European Union.

Clashes in Kiev, a drawback for europhile Ukrainians.

   Escalation of the riots in Kiev, Ukraine, continues, increasing the death toll to extremely high numbers. The "Euromaidan" movement, is being transformed into violent and bloody clashes, raising fears about the possibility of extended nationwide internal conflicts or even a civil war.

Clashes in Kiyv, Ukraine. (courtesy of Reuters/Vasily Fedosenko)

   The beginning of all this was the reaction (right, according to many) of the Europhile Ukrainian citizens to the decision of Yanukovich to stop any negotiation related to the desired agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. However it is important for every Ukrainian, citizen or opposition party leader, who supports a cooperation and a possible future membership of the country with the EU, to realize that their dreams are in a jeopardy, this time not because of their President, but because of crossing the lines regarding their reactions.

   The hardcore clashes that can easy turn into a civil war (especially when there are reports of rioters/civilians who obtained handguns and light weapons) can only take a country away from its goal to become part of the Union. Every day of deep instability and internal conflicts is a step backwards for the possibility of Ukraine to achieve any kind of agreement with Europe.

New Energy Roads: Trans Adriatic Pipeline Pt.3

(image copyrights: www.jsg.utexas.edu)

During the past months, Security Affairs have indicated the importance of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline as the route of transport of the Azeri Shah Deniz II gas to Europe.

Although the competition was hard, in 28th of June the Shah Deniz Consortium confirmed the choice of TAP, introducing Greece, Italy and Albania to the new energy era of Europe. With this agreement and after the initiation of transport, the European countries will no more depend only on Russia and Algeria for their natural gas needs, considering Azerbaijan as their new powerful energy partner.

The Consortium also pointed out that this particular choice was made because of the project's advanced economic and technical characteristics. Thanks to these characteristics, Trans Adriatic Pipeline prevailed over NABUCCO West, the until recently predominant pipeline whose route was including Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Austria.

For the three countries that will host TAP, the implementation of the project will offer an economic and geopolitical boost, including new job positions, raise of investments and a higher energy profile towards the European Union. Italy is going to gain a wider energy independence from Algeria and its natural gas supplies. Regarding Greece, it is an important move against the economic crisis and the hyperbolic voices about "Grexit", prompting international investors to approach the market in wider scale. And of course, for Albania, the pipeline agreement is synchronized with a major political change, the victory of the Alliance for a European Albania and its leader Edi Rama; the  important energy project and the defeat of Sali Berisha which was widely considered as a sign of growing democratic maturity of Albania, is a promising combination for its future.

Trans Adriatic Pipeline will be approximately 870 km long, connecting with Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) near Greek-Turkish borders. It is designed to expand the capacity from 10 to 20 bcm per year and will open up the so-called Southern Gas Corridor, strengthening Europe's energy security by providing a new natural gas source.

Erdogan's intransigence, a step back for Turkey.

Protesters holding banners reading on "Tayyip (Turkish PM) must resign".
(Photo by EPA/The Telegraph)

True facts about governance in Turkey comes to light through the unrest that started in Taksim Square and expanded in other major cities. No matter how much Ankara may want to enter the European Union or belong to the "West", the way this situation was managed by the government revealed the inability of using democratic methods to solve interior crises.

Regarding the huge amounts of tear gas and the brutality used to suppress the protesters, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not seem willing to show any compunction about the violence towards the gathered people. Expressing his prospects and decisions about this situation can confuse and might be considered by the listener as an authoritarian leader. He sounds like a politician and a man who does not accept an opinion different than his. Due to these characteristics, his profile is similar to some dictators (without implying that he is one), rather than to European leaders.

Number one in imprisoned journalists, manipulation of media, a considerable number of unsolved issues with neighbors and minorities, refusal to recognize many genocides, four coups d'etat since 1960 (including the 1997 military memorandum, characterized also as a "postmodern coup"), and now, a hardcore suppression of the people protesting against a pertinacious Prime Minister who is planning on tightening alcohol rules and forbidding public display of affection, the political system and governance in Turkey tries to find a way into the European Union.

However, the most dangerous move of the Turkish PM is not his refusal to apologize for the excessive use of violence and the lack of any conversation with the protesters. What could make him look like a leader of previous centuries with a total ignorance of the term "diplomacy" is his indirect (at least until the moment this article was published) call of his supporters to react to the Taksim Square movement. "There is an end to our patience" Erdogan said, with rage in his voice, in front of a crowd that was chanting its will to die for him. Such words, to such an audience, are far from helpful for this social unrest and could lead to clashes between masses of the people, to an uprising and of course to situations beyond any control.

Prime Minister Erdogan should think twice. His intransigence and hence a socially and politically  unstable Turkey, will not be only a national issue, but also a major risk for Turkey's allies during this period of turmoil in the Middle East, and many steps back regarding the country's aims to come closer to the European Union.

New energy roads: Trans Adriatic Pipeline Pt.2

On 13th of January 2013, the trilateral Intergovernmental Agreement regarding the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) was signed. Greece, Italy and Albania took a big step towards the final choice of TAP as the exclusive one to transport the gas from Azerbaijan to Europe, by the Shah Deniz consortium.

The Agreement was signed by the Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs Dimitris Avramopoulos, the Italian Minister of Development Corrado Passera, and the Albanian Minister of Economy, Trade and Energy Edmond Haxhinasto. The ceremony took place  at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Athens, Greece, with the presence of officers from the Azerbaijani government, the TAP consortium (Statoil, Axpo, E.ON Ruhrgas) and the Shah Deniz consortium (BP, Socar, Total). It has to be noted that on the occasion of his visit in Greece, Eric Rubin, the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State was also present to the ceremony.

The Italian Minister Corrado Passera pointed out the important role of TAP as a strategic infrastructure to strengthen the security of supplying energy  to Europe. Mr. Passera made clear that the plan of his government is to turn Italy into the main gas hub of Southern Europe and added that his country should play an important  role within the general European Energy Policy.

On their side, Greek Minister Dimitris Avramopoulos and Prime Minister Antonis Samaras noted the establishment of a new framework of cooperation with Italy and Albania, and the strategic role of the project for the energy security in the European Union. Mr. Samaras mentioned the advantages of TAP compared to the other pipelines planned for the region (shorter route, lower cost, smalled number of countries involved), and said that Greece is determined to attract even more foreign investors in the country.

Finally, the Agreement was welcomed by the European Commissioner for Energy, Günther Oettinger, who expressed the full support of the European Commission towards the Trans Adriatic Pipeline project and added that this agreement has set the legal framework for the pipeline. "This is another important step towards our aim to get gas directly from the Caspian Region" the EU Energy Commissioner said.

However, for the moment, the members involved in this project can only wait until June 2013 in order to find out if TAP will be the pipeline chosen to transport the Caspian gas in Europe, through the South.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.

New energy roads: Trans Adriatic Pipeline Pt.1

The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), is the project of the homonymous company that plans to build and develop the pipeline  which will transfer the natural gas from the Shah Deniz II in Azerbaijan, to Europe, through Greece, Italy and Albania. The company shareholders are the SwissEGL, the Norwegian Statoil and the German E.ON Ruhrgas; the two first hold 42.5% of the shares respectively, while the latter holds 15%. TAP will be the pipeline which will connect Middle East with Europe, opening the “Southern Gas Corridor”.

It is estimated that TAP will have a transportation capacity of approximately 10 bcm per year, depending on demands. Pipeline’s length will be approximately 800 km; 478 km will be in Greek, 204 km in Albanian and 5 km in Italian territory, while 105 km will be across the Adriatic Sea.

On 27th of September, the States of Greece, Italy and Albania, signed a Memorandum of Understanding in New York, providing officially their support towards the project. The three Foreign Ministers, Dimitris Avramopoulos (Greece), Giulio Terzi (Italy) and Edmond Panariti (Albania), along with company representatives, signed this MoU, affirming the necessary backing -in governmental level- of the pipeline construction and proper function.

It is clear that European Union makes efforts to cut its dependence on the Russian gas supplies, by reaching the Caspian Sea reserves and the Azerbaijan development of Shah Deniz through other routes. Russia provides EU with approximately 25% of its needs, so Trans Adriatic Pipeline is expected to be a milestone to the change of this dependence.

Of course, TAP is not the only project of gas transportation at this region. The alternative projects include the Nabucco Pipeline, also known as “Turkey-Austria Pipeline”, which will include Austria, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, the Greece-Italy Pipeline, which will include Greece and Italy, and the South Stream project, that will include Russia, Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Italy, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia and Turkey.

Initially posted by Giorgos Dimitriadis on The Pryer, UK.